Prediction Considerations

April 30, 2011

With the race less than a week away, I’d like to give everyone some things to think about to make the best possible prediction you can (on the fun page) to win a prize.

Things that will speed me up on race day:
My weight. When I ran fifty miles last fall, I weighed in at about 170 pounds. Right now, I’m closer to 165. It doesn’t seem like much, but if I have five less pounds to carry for 26.2 miles, it can significantly improve my time.

Things that will slow me down on race day:
My wardrobe. While we didn’t quite meet our pledge goal, it is likely that I will still wear some cheese-themed clothing. In addition to the cape, I may once again wear the cheese cowboy hat to add a little extra to my outfit. Both of these could increase the drag factor and slow me down a bit.

Things that might or might not help on race day:
The weather. I’m hoping for temperatures in the low to mid 50s for the best possible race conditions. Warmer than that, and the cheese cowboy hat may become uncomfortable. Warmer temperatures also means increased fluid intake, and my body has to work harder to keep up the same pace. If it’s too cold, extra layers could slow me down. Rain could also slow me down, but if it’s a gentle downpour, it can actually help keep me from overheating.

All things considered, I am confident that I can break four hours, but I’m not sure by how much. Good luck with your prediction!